Sentiment on Dubai is changing again

So that's that for another year - the summer is over, just about, and those of us who still call the Gulf home should all be back now, rested, and raring to go. Right? The summers here are long and hot, and this year Ramadan, as enriching an experience as it is for those taking part, made it seem all the longer.

What did we learn this summer? I can't talk for you, but I realised all sportsmen are lying cheating scumbags, Gulf airlines are scaring the life out of the rest of the world's carriers (the louder the insults Tony Tyler and co hurl, the more obvious their own insecurities), a great deal of people in the Gulf think the practice of sending people with unserviceable debt to prison is a policy that could do with a rethink, gold was a good bet after all, and there now seems to be a computer virus in circulation capable of shutting down the world, or at least whole countries, at the flick of a switch. It also seems that perhaps Delhi was not the cleverest choice to host one of the world's major sporting events - the Commonwealth Games - even despite the help of Emaar in building the Olympic Village.

Something else seems to have changed, too, over the summer. It was subtle at first - almost imperceptible. But now it is becoming a love affair that dares show its face again. The world seems to have forgiven Dubai - or at least accepted it for what it is - post the default. As I type, there is a gushing piece on the front of the International Herald Tribune titled ‘Dubai rises from the ashes of debt crisis', counting the emirate's virtues as a centre for international finance, while lauding it for "getting back to basics."

In Dubai, it says, "breathless gambles are giving way to more pragmatic priorities aimed at pushing it forward toward a future built less on ostentation and more on reviving its roots as the dominant trading hub between the industrial world and the oil-rich Middle East... rumours of its demise were greatly exaggerated."

What a difference a year makes. The Kubler-Ross model says there are five stages of grief - denial, anger, bargaining, depression and then acceptance - and certainly these emotional states could act as accurate markers on a curve charting the attitude of much of the world towards the Gulf's most famous state since November 25, 2009. Acceptance now, and even praise, seems light years away from the prognostications of the emirate's collapse being made only recently.

Certainly the signs are looking up.

At last there is talk of renewed confidence in Dubai amongst the international investment community. The new sovereign bond issue was four times oversubscribed - a far cry from previous bond issues for which the only buyer has been Abu Dhabi - meaning the government will raise in the region of $1.25bn. The $23.5bn restructuring of Dubai World's debts is coming to a conclusion, too. And then there's the recent announcement by the government that over half of its property projects have been scrapped since 2008 - the kind of admission that once might been very hard to make, but which now sends out the right message to potential investors.

2010 has been for Dubai what the Queen of England once described as an annus horribilis - Latin for an awful year - in many ways. For those people who love to look for signs of green shoots, they are obvious now for Dubai. Let us hope then the rest of the clean up job can be done over the fourth quarter, and that the story of 2011 is altogether brighter.

One stat in particular that stood out in Dubai's bond prospectus: traffic fines in the emirate rose 47.6 percent over the last twelve months. Anyone who has recently had to pay their fines could probably have told you this already. If you haven't paid yours yet for the year, considering doing so your own little bailout.

Damian Reilly is the Editor of Arabian Business.

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