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Banking Survey Report 2010

GCC banks need to gear up for mortgage boom
Sunday, 06 June 2010


The GCC mortgage market has the potential for a tenfold rise in the next decade, according to the chairman of Sakana, an Islamic mortgage finance provider.

Speaking at the GCC Mortgage Summit 2010 in Bahrain, Reyadh Sater said that since ‘freehold started, GCC markets have been worth $66 billion’, but the potential for them to increase tenfold within the next decade existed as the region geared up for a mortgage boom within 18 to 24 months time.

Premal Patel, executive director, Veritas Events, said that this boom would be “the biggest business opportunity for regional banks going forward.”

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He added: “It might be 18 months to two years before the retail mortgage boom really gets going but the banks know that they need to be planning their systems now.”

Mungo Dunnett, chairman, Mungo Dunnett Associates, UK, warned regional banks that they risked missing out to the major international banks if they did not prepare properly.

He said: “It is not just a matter of offering the lowest interest rates, and actually for many banks, that is a very bad way to approach the mortgage business. Where price is the only consideration, then only the biggest banks will win.”

Instead he suggested that the banks to focus on customer retention and service, which would enable them to charge rates ‘up to one percent higher than the lowest rate.”

This would be a better way to compete with the international banks, who are presently offering lower mortgage rates.

Dunnett said: “It is much better to have a smaller mortgage business with higher profit margins than chase business through cost cutting.”

Richard Arlove, CEO, Abax Group, reminded delegates at the forum that Gulf regulators should be working on a framework to stop any future mortgage boom ending in another bust.

He said: “We are always trying not to repeat the mistakes of the past, but do so time and time again, why not try to be different in the GCC?”


 

READERS' COMMENTS

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by our readers are not necessarily shared by ArabianBusiness.com or its employees.
The Train is coming watch-out
Posted by Nalindra, Dubai, UAE on Monday 7 June 2010 at 12:11 UAE time
Edited by ArabianBusiness.com

Dear Mr Sakana, when you go home tonight please switch on the Tv channel - I suggest watch Bloomburg News to see whats happening in the markets before you let the cat out of the bag next time!... Thank you
None of the banks are lending.
Posted by The Analyst on Sunday 6 June 2010 at 18:51 UAE time


In total agreement with Simon. No one wants to lend...especially to the extremely speculative and unregulated real estate sector of Dubai. What international banks are they talking about wanting to rush to Dubai? Are these individuals even qualified to answer the phones, let alone manage banks. You see my friends it's greed like the sorts you read about here that destroyed Dubai and other international markets. Dubai has many years ahead of price decreases. The oversupply of properties is here and will continue with no buyers. The globe is in a nasty secondary recession/depression. Everyone is aware of a double dip recession. Someone please notify these individuals that are living in a cave. Did anyone notice that US and European markets closed down treacherously? The US closed down below 10,000 on the DOW... European markets and Asian markets followed. China the only real growth engine is SLOWING down and putting the brakes on it's economy. So....to these individuals, in this article.. I recommend that you find another profession. Dubai does NOT need to completely collapse! It's already in extremely bad shape and will get worst with an inventory supply of hundreds of thousands of properties by 2011-2012. It will be a decade or more of depreciating prices both in the residential and commercial office space sector. Peace to all.
What are you talking about???
Posted by Simon, Dubai, UAE on Sunday 6 June 2010 at 15:33 UAE time


Mr Sakana, the chairman of an Islamic mortgage finance provider really does not have a good handle on whats been happening with banks in the last few years. Quite frightening given that he's a chairman of a lending institution!

Everyone knows that Mortgage finance is necessary for a property market to exist. However, the problem, is that the banks are too highly leveraged already in the region, especially the UAE. No bank is going to do what he suggests because it does NOT make economic or commercial sense.

Leveraging to the levels he is suggesting would just end in tears and collapse. People need to de-leverage their money and begin to trade within lower levels of lending and expectations. The mortgage market maybe primed to grow ten fold...but NOT naturally grow to those levels. It can only grow to those levels if Banks do the unthinkable and kick start another boom and bust, speculative driven property market and that is something this region definately does NOT need again any time soon.

It also appears that Premal Patel, executive director, Veritas Events has no clue either! People like this, not actually understanding how the crisis came about would do well to think before they speak/quote.

"Mungo Dunnett, chairman, Mungo Dunnett Associates, UK, warned regional banks that they risked missing out to the major international banks if they did not prepare properly"

Mr Mungo...the international banks are in NO hurry to increase their lending books. They just don't have the funds you are talking about that would need to come to the region to make it work. They are trying to de-leverage their clients...not increase them and take on more risk.

If a market can not operate under todays 'down to earth' lending criteria then the market will fail and should fail...then regrow within the set boundaries of 'real' lending/leveraging criteria.

Lending is strictly related to the clients ability to repay the level of borrowing under normal...not boom conditions. If you leverage your clients to the levels of previous years, without strict lending criteria, the banks are in for an almightly fall again. Without 'loose' lending criteria, todays potential clients are in no position to borrow.

If this article shows nothing else...its that the lessons that have needed to be learned have fallen on deaf ears. All these people want are boom times again and ignore the eventual consequences.

I could go on...but I'll leave it there

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